| Analysis |
Articles
·Outing'
Of Brit Mole In IRA Eyed With Suspicion Boston Herald,
Wednesday, May 21, 2003
·Alleged
IRA Top Hawk Pushes Support For Sinn Fein Boston Sunday Herald, April 20, 2003
·Trimble
Speaks Volumes With Exit From Talks (Interview: Mark
Durkan, leader, Social Democratic Labor Party) Boston
Sunday Herald, March 9, 2003
·IRA
Splinter Groups Eyed In Booby trap Killing Boston
Sunday Herald, August 4, 2002
·Brick
By Brick, Foundations Of Peace Crumble Boston
Sunday Herald, June 30, 2002
·`Fidel
factor' Solidifies IRA Support Boston Sunday Herald,
December 23, 2001
·Be
Bold, Britain, And Withdraw Troops Boston Sunday Herald, June 24, 2001 ·Threat
Of Violence May Topple Good Friday Boston Sunday
Herald, February 20, 2000
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`Outing'
Of Brit Mole In IRA Eyed With Suspicion
by Jim Dee
Boston Herald, Wednesday, May 21, 2003.
BELFAST, Northern Ireland - It's Hollywood blockbuster
material: An IRA grand executioner who was feared for
his ruthless ability to expose and kill turncoats,
was himself Britain's most valued agent inside the
IRA for decades.
But is it true?
Explosive claims that Freddy Scappaticci was "Stakeknife," the
code name of an alleged longtime Brit super spy, first
surfaced May 11 in several British and Irish newspapers.
The reports claimed Scappaticci, 59, was a top member
of the IRA's "nutting squads," which uncovered and
executed informers.
It was said that dozens died by his hand, including
other agents murdered to keep his cover safe - some
reportedly with his British spymasters' full approval.
Scappaticci also allegedly assessed new IRA recruits,
making him able to give the British scores of IRA names
for decades before reportedly retiring in 1996.
When the story broke, British sources claimed Scappaticci
was taken out of Northern Ireland for his own safety.
They peddled that line until May 14, when he appeared
at his lawyer's office in Belfast to deny everything.
He admitted involvement in the "republican movement," but
said he quit 13 years ago.
Many republicans smell British "dirty tricks," - part
of an attempt to sow paranoia within the IRA's ranks
at a time when they're facing calls to fold up their
tents and fade away forever.
And the British intelligence version does have holes.
They clearly lied about Scappaticci's whereabouts.
And, if he'd regularly exposed the identities of new
recruits (and presumably senior operators as well)
why wasn't the IRA defeated years ago?
Even more bizarre: Although one British source told
media outlets the mole's code name was spelled "Steak
Knife," another was adamant that it was "Stakeknife." If
this was the Mother of All Moles,, shouldn't they at
least know how to spell his name?
But there are some republicans who do doubt Scappaticci
denials.
They ask why he waited four days to appear, and why
he limited his "press conference" to a brief prepared
statement. If he had nothing to hide, they argue, why
didn't he immediately protest his innocence?
Conspiracy theories abound. One says Stakeknife is
a much more highly placed mole, and that Scappaticci
was named to throw the IRA off his trail.
This theory claims that, despite knowing IRA members'
identities, Britain didn't arrest them. Instead British
authorities systematically thwarted IRA operations
so the increased failure rate would bolster Stakeknife's
clandestine efforts to push republicans toward seeking
a negotiated settlement.
Through it all, only Scappaticci's past IRA role appears
certain.
Several republicans told the Herald that he did once
hold a top IRA internal security post. But perhaps
the most intriguing question about the whole affair
concerns its timing. Why "out" Stakeknife now if he's
been inactive since 1996?
Some republicans think the answer is that British
spies wanted the IRA to whack Scappaticci, and thereby
destroy any chance of convincing pro-British unionists
to rejoin Sinn Fein in government.
The political vacuum would then deepen and possibly
threaten the entire peace process.
And this, mainstream republicans claim, is what British
Army hard- liners who've bristled at Sinn Fein's political
gains in recent years really want - another chance
to defeat the IRA militarily.
Too farfetched? Maybe. But maybe not. Because, regardless
of who's telling the truth, the only clear message
that emerges from the Stakeknife saga is that some
people will stop at nothing to achieve their goals
in Northern Ireland.
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Alleged
IRA Top Hawk Pushes Support For Sinn Fein
By Jim Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, April 20, 2003
COALISLAND, Northern Ireland - He's considered the
Mother of All Hawks within the Irish Republican Army.
But yesterday, Brian Keenan - a man reputedly situated
among the guerrillas' top echelon - urged IRA supporters
to remain behind Sinn Fein's efforts, which he insisted
are advancing the IRA's objective of Irish reunification.
"People who don't know republicans think that we glory
in war," Keenan told a rally in this county Tyrone
village commemorating 1916's Easter Rising - the failed
revolt that inspired Ireland's subsequent War of Independence
(1919-1921).
"We don't believe in permanent war. But what we believe
in is permanent struggle until we achieve the objectives
of the proclamation," he said, referring to the document
in which the Easter Rising's leaders outlined their
vision of an Irish republic.
With the IRA currently under pressure to disband,
scores of Easter rebellion rallies across Ireland will
hear the IRA leadership, in the coming days, urge republicans
to remain "resolute" during the current political standoff.
It began last October when the pro-British Ulster
Unionist Party forced Britain to ice the North's peace-pact-created
assembly over an IRA spying scandal. The UUP says it
won't go back into government until the IRA stages
a major public disarmament act, and then vanishes forever.
A fresh row erupted on April 10, when British Prime
Minister Tony Blair and Irish premier Bertie Ahern
canceled the unveiling of their logjam-breaking plan
because they felt an IRA statement concerning its future
wouldn't satisfy unionists.
Blair and Ahern received a revised IRA statement last
Sunday. Since then, they've sought and received clarification
from the IRA about certain points. But they're still
resisting Sinn Fein calls to publish their plan, which
includes further British army demilitarization and
judicial and policing reforms in return for IRA concessions.
Blair and Ahern don't doubt the IRA, which has been
on cease- fire since 1997, is serious about peace.
But UUP leader David Trimble, who's seen the IRA's
statement in private, considers it "a long way short" of
his bottom line.
If no deal is cut this week, negotiations could be "parked" until
the fall, which could jeopardize scheduled May 29 assembly
elections.
But amid the gathering gloom, a highly significant
passage in Brian Keenan's speech yesterday offered
a glimmer of hope.
He stressed that republicans see the governmental
bodies created by 1998's Good Friday Agreement "as
a method of building more political strength. And the
more strength we have, the harder it will be for British
imperialism to stay in this country."
Here was allegedly one of the top military minds of
the IRA - a movement which once sought to topple the
North's government - emphasizing that its restoration
is crucial to the long-term plans of Sinn Fein and
the IRA. Thus, republicans may - eventually, that is
- compromise to advance their long-term strategy.
Of all the peace process compromises the IRA has made,
sanctioning Sinn Fein's participation in the North's
Stormont assembly has unsettled its ranks the most.
But aside from two small bands of IRA dissidents,
the likes of Keenan have kept the IRA together at crucial
junctures such as the current one by staking their
reputations on the fact that the leadership hasn't
sold out.
Addressing yesterday's crowd, which included many
relatives of IRA men killed since 1969, he said, "Don't
be nervous. Republicans aren't going to let you down
after this long. We will do what is right. We will
do it with surety. We will do it with strength. And
we will achieve the republic."

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Trimble
Speaks Volumes With Exit From Talks (Interview: Mark
Durkan, leader, Social Democratic Labor Party)
by Jim Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, March 9, 2003
BELFAST, Northern Ireland - If ever there were a
defining moment in the Irish peace process, it came
at 7 p.m. Tuesday. That was when Ulster Unionist
Party leader David Trimble bailed out of two days
of intensive talks aimed at restoring the North's
power-sharing government so he could attend to unspecified "parliamentary
business" in London.
In addition to Irish premier Bertie Ahern and the
dozens of assorted politicians and British and Irish
civil servants left behind by Trimble at Hillsborough
Castle was one Tony Blair.
Blair, who might be risking his job as British prime
minister by sticking with President Bush despite
widespread opposition in his country to war against
Iraq, had earlier canceled an important meeting with
the Russian foreign minister in order to stay at
the talks.
Trimble's exit highlighted his haughty assumption
that his needs outweigh those of all others.
Instead of robustly defending the Good Friday peace
agreement, Trimble has triggered several crises since
1998 by demanding concessions from Sinn Fein to help
him silence grumbling peace pact foes in his own
party.
In contrast, Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams and Martin
McGuinness have consistently sold the accord's big-picture
merits to their base. That has helped them deliver
groundbreaking IRA disarmament moves and, even more
stunningly, a republican admission that Ireland won't
be united until a majority in Northern Ireland votes
for it to be.
Adams and McGuinness haven't exactly faced lightweight
opposition: IRA dissidents killed 29 people with
a 1998 car-bombing in Omagh aimed at trying to sink
the peace accord.
Despite Trimble's exit, a deal was almost cut to
revive the assembly, which Britain mothballed in
October amidst a burgeoning IRA spying scandal.
Blair and Ahern will return next month hoping to
seal a deal involving major moves on British army
demilitarization; judicial and policing reform; and
a qualified amnesty for IRA fugitives in return for
dramatic IRA disarmament moves and a statement that
the group's war is over.
An independent monitoring panel would judge compliance.
The pro-British UUP wants immediate sanctions imposed
on Sinn Fein if the IRA is ever deemed in breach.
Sinn Fein says this would violate the terms of 1998's
carefully crafted peace pact.
Both sides label the issue of sanctions a "deal-breaker."
Mark Durkan, leader of the pro-Irish nationalist
Social Democratic Labor Party, thinks a deal can
be done, thereby allowing assembly elections on May
29 (Britain last week scrapped the original May 1
election date to give parties time to sell any new
deal).
Durkan, who was the Cabinet's deputy first minster,
believes the sanctions' standoff could be defused
if parties sign an "implementation compact." And,
if problems arise, a gradual four-stage, all-party
review process would then propose consensus solutions.
"Our approach is solution focused. The others are
sanction focused - about parties finding fault with
each other," insists Durkan. "Ours turns a problem
into a solution, theirs turns a problem into a crisis."
Of the many talks convened during the crisis after
crisis that have followed 1998's peace pact, Durkan
said, "At times you wonder: How can there be so much
talk with so little communication?
"There's been a lot of posing and posturing throughout
this process," he said. "A large part of this process
has involved people milking not doing things, so
that they can then go on to milk doing those things
later."
He said some parties have an exaggerated sense of
their global importance.
On a January visit to study aid projects in the
famine-stricken African country of Malawi, he was
ribbed by that nation's vice president over the instability
of the North's government.
Which makes you realize, he said, "that in one of
the poorest countries in the world our political
situation is taken as a political joke.
"We have this thing of telling each other here that
the eyes of the world are upon us," he added. "The
reality is, the eyes of the world are more usually
rolled up towards heaven when they see us trapping
ourselves and tripping each other, instead of going
down the path of progress."
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IRA
Splinter Groups Eyed In Booby-trap Killing
by Jim
Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, August 4, 2002
DERRY, Northern Ireland - David Caldwell got to
his job at 7 a.m. Thursday in a British army base
on Derry's outskirts. Clearing a cluttered work table,
he removed a lunch box someone had left behind, unaware
it was a booby trap.
The bomb inside exploded in his face.
The 51-year-old Protestant construction worker died
in the hospital soon afterward.
Although no group claimed responsibility, some who
have splintered off from the Irish Republican Army
are being blamed.
The murder of Caldwell, who once served in the British
army's locally recruited Ulster Defense Regiment,
occurred after months of sectarian violence in Belfast
and 11 days after pro-British loyalist paramilitaries
randomly shot dead a Catholic teenager in the city.
On Friday, 3,000 people attended a rally at Belfast
City Hall protesting the violence. Tomorrow, an anti-sectarian
march will proceed from the site of Caldwell's killing
to Derry center. His wife, Mavis McFaul, who now
must raise their four daughters alone, has urged
that there be no retaliation for her husband's killing.
Of the bombers, she said, "If they could see the
families they leave behind, the heartbroken, they
wouldn't do this."
Two small bands of IRA rebels remain active in the
North: the self-styled "Real IRA," who are considered
the chief suspects in Caldwell's murder, and the
Continuity IRA.
The RIRA called a cease-fire a month after carrying
out the Omagh bombing of August 1998, which killed
29 people and injured hundreds more. But police believe
they've carried out dozens of unclaimed small-scale
bombings since February 2000.
Two weeks ago, for the first time since 1998, the
RIRA claimed credit for a grenade attack on a police
car near Downpatrick. They vowed then to continue
their campaign "until the British occupation of our
country is ended once and for all."
An army spokesman said the base where Caldwell was
killed closed down a year ago and is used now only
by teenage army cadets and "medical units engaged
in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions all over
the world. These people save lives. It's outrageous
that such an incident should occur in such a place."
Caldwell's slaying was condemned by politicians
across the political divide.
Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness, a former IRA commander
who is now the North's education minister, called
it "absolutely and totally wrong."
Before the mainstream IRA's current five-year cease-fire,
it often left booby-trapped devices at army bases.
The IRA also targeted civilians repairing the damage
done to bases by IRA bombs. IRA dissidents could
claim they're continuing those tactics.
But, regardless of the rationale, they're clearly
ignoring the dramatically changed political landscape
ushered in by 1998's Good Friday peace agreement.
The accord is backed by more than 90 percent of
the North's pro- Irish nationalists. And Sinn Fein's
political rise - in which it became the largest nationalist
party in June 2001 - owes much to its energetic depiction
of the accord as a springboard to Irish reunification.
In contrast, the RIRA haven't explained how they'll
drive Britain from Ireland, something the larger
and better-equipped mainstream IRA couldn't do during
25 years of fighting.
Michael McKevitt, who is said to be the RIRA's founder,
will go on trial in January on charges of directing
the group. The chief witness against him is Dave
Rupert, an American who was paid to infiltrate the
RIRA, and who is now living under FBI protection.
Rupert infiltrated the RIRA by first approaching
sympathizers in the United States who long have been
busy raising funds for IRA dissidents in barrooms
and clubs from Boston to San Francisco.
These days, anyone wishing to make a contribution
to help out the "Auld Sod" has many legitimate options,
from human rights watchdog groups to political parties
to charitable organizations both in Ireland and in
America.
Or, one could give money to a group that hides explosives
in lunch boxes, so unsuspecting workmen who are struggling
to put food on their families' tables die in horrific
circumstances.
Such groups will unite Ireland, all right - but
in disgust at the brutality of callous actions purportedly
carried out on behalf of "all" Irish people, including
David Caldwell's now-grief-stricken family.

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Brick
By Brick, Foundations Of Peace Crumble
by Jim Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, June 30, 2002
BELFAST, Northern Ireland - As armored police jeeps
retreated from the scene of yesterday's heavy nationalist
rioting on West Belfast's Springfield Road, a 10-year-old
boy with a brick in his hand eyed them with satisfaction.
"Is that them all away?" said the boy, who'd been
in the thick of the battle that was sparked when police
guided an unwanted Protestant march through the area.
"We put them out, didn't we?" he said, beaming.
In this part of Belfast, the police have been seen
as the armed wing of pro-British unionism ever since
Britain partitioned Ireland in 1920.
The Irish and U.S. governments, along with most of
the North's major parties, back Britain's November
2000 police reforms. Sinn Fein doesn't, insisting they
don't go far enough.
And, as vividly underscored by yesterday's violence,
in Sinn Fein and Irish Republican Army heartlands the
policing issue remains as volatile - and potentially
destabilizing - as ever.
Policing will be on the agenda when British Prime
Minister Tony Blair and Irish Prime Minister Bertie
Ahern convene crisis talks Thursday about mounting
Belfast street violence and allegations of renewed
IRA activity.
The IRA is accused of stealing classified intelligence
information from a Belfast police station in March,
giving explosives training to Colombian rebels last
year, and shooting at pro-British loyalists during
recent civil unrest in East Belfast.
In addition, anonymous British intelligence sources
recently told the BBC that the IRA was testing new
weaponry of its own in Colombia, and that it's been
updating its files on potential targets. The IRA denies
the allegations.
Sinn Fein says the most recent charges are designed
to shift attention away from a damning BBC documentary
last week that alleged British soldiers and police
systematically helped loyalist paramilitaries murder
scores of nationalists during the conflict.
Regardless of who is right, a crisis is brewing.
Ulster Unionist Party leader David Trimble is once
again muttering about possibly quitting his first minister's
post if Blair doesn't punish Sinn Fein for the IRA's
alleged infractions.
Trimble says actions speak louder than words, insisting
that, while the IRA talks of supporting peace, its
activities suggest otherwise. But do they?
The IRA has held a cease-fire since July 1997, and
for all but 17 months since August 1994. In the last
10 months, it has carried out two unprecedented disarmament
acts - something it swore it would never do and something
the major loyalist paramilitaries still refuse to do.
And, crucially, the IRA said it moved on disarmament
specifically to save the peace process from collapse.
The IRA also has sent its political allies in Sinn
Fein into a British-financed parliament at Stormont,
a building long despised by republicans and nationalists.
Indeed, seeing Sinn Fein at Stormont is one of the
most striking developments in the peace process, because
it was once hailed as a "Protestant parliament for
a Protestant people" where widespread discrimination
against Catholics was openly advocated by unionist
prime ministers.
In addition, Belfast's first-ever Sinn Fein mayor,
Alex Maskey, will lay a wreath at City Hall tomorrow
to honor the Protestants and Catholics of Ireland who
died fighting for Britain in Word War I.
This will be a enormous symbolic step and one that
has angered some republicans. But Maskey's gesture
is in line with the pledge he made upon being sworn
in this month that he'd use his yearlong term to build
bridges with unionists, whose city councilors all opposed
his election.
However, unionists remain skeptical of his and the
IRA's intentions. So the brewing crisis is likely to
continue to deepen with the approach of next May's
crucial assembly elections - a de facto second referendum
on the peace pact.
This means the clock may be ticking for the accord
and, more importantly, for the 10-year-old with the
brick in his hand on the Springfield Road.
A failure by politicians now doesn't only run the
risk of sinking the new political arrangements. It
also risks replacing the boy's brick with a rifle in
10 years time, a nightmare scenario no one wants, but
too few appear to be acting to prevent.

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`Fidel Factor' Solidifies IRA Support
by Jim Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, December 23, 2001
HAVANA - The first time I met Pat Quinn was in a bleak
windswept hillside graveyard on a freezing cold February
day in Ireland's rugged west. The next time I saw him,
he was baking on a sun- drenched bench in a central
Havana park.
"It's a small world. We Irish are everywhere," said
Quinn, who was vacationing here when he heard Sinn
Fein's Gerry Adams was unveiling a monument in the
park to 10 Irish republican hunger strikers who died
in 1981 protesting Britain's removal of their political
prisoner status.
Quinn had a point. Centuries of emigration from Ireland
by people fleeing poverty and famine saw the Irish
populate not only North America, but Latin America
as well.
Argentina's navy was founded in
1814 by County Mayo's William Brown. And the liberator
of Peru, Bernardo
O'Higgins, while born there, was clearly of the "auld
sod" as well.
Even Ernesto "Che" Guevara, an Argentinean who was
one of Fidel Castro's right-hand-men during the 1959
revolution had Irish ancestors named "Lynch" on his
mother's side.
As for Adams' trip to Cuba to thank Cuban President
Castro for his past political support for Irish republicanism,
it mostly sent Northern Ireland's pro-British unionists
ballistic.
But even the pro-Irish nationalist
Socialist Democratic Labor Party's Alex Attwood,
who Adams trounced in a
June election, insisted the trip will do "substantial
and enduring" damage to Sinn Fein's standing in the
United States.
Maybe, maybe not.
After the IRA's 1993 Shankill Road bombing, which
killed nine Protestant shoppers and one of the bombers,
Adams carried the bomber's coffin at his funeral.
Unionists, and some U.S. politicians, were furious.
But carrying the coffin solidified Adams' credibility
with the IRA at a crucial juncture when he was trying
to persuade the guerrillas to make the transition from
war to politics.
Had Adams disowned the bomber, IRA rank-and-file would
have bitterly resented him, and his ability to deliver
such a seismic shift in IRA policy would have evaporated.
And while Washington wasn't thrilled about the coffin
affair, President Clinton granted him a special visa
four months later allowing him to enter the United
States for the first time ever. The IRA called its
first peace process cease-fire six months after that.
More recently, Sinn Fein was in
President Bush's doghouse because of the August arrest
in Colombia of three Irish
republicans as they were leaving a Switzerland-sized
swath of the country controlled by Marxist guerrillas.
Adams' Cuba trip has again annoyed the White House,
with one spokesman saying it "dims" the administration's
view of him.
But even the staunchest U.S. allies don't always follow
Washington's lead. Since 1991, for example, the U.N.
General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly to call for
an end to the U.S. economic embargo of Cuba. This year's
vote was 167 to 3, with only Israel and the Marshall
Islands voting with America.
While officially backing the embargo, however, Israel
is in fact Cuba's largest citrus grower, its top fruit
exporter, and is developing a major business center
in Havana. But that won't jeopardize Israel's place
as the No. 1 recipient of U.S. military aid. Its role
as a U.S. ally in the Middle East is too important.
Likewise, Washington knows Adams is a linchpin of
the Irish peace process, whose influence has kept the
IRA on cease-fire for all but 17 months since August
1994. Washington also knows he has his own constituency
to satisfy.
In late October, Adams was instrumental
in convincing the IRA leadership to make its historic
disarmament
gesture, a move he said caused "little earthquakes" among
the IRA's grassroots. His Cuba trip may help calm IRA
members who might now be doubting his revolutionary
credentials.
As for Ulster Unionist Party leader David Trimble,
his own political pragmatism in going into government
with Sinn Fein prior to full IRA disarmament has nearly
split his own party.
And he knows isolating Sinn Fein over Cuba could trigger
a dangerous hardening of IRA attitudes and jeopardize
the entire peace process.
So the long and short of it is,
after much huffing and puffing, the "Fidel factor" will
fade, leaving the peace train to chug forward - albeit
over occasionally
rough terrain. And no amount of controversial revolutionary
field trips will derail it.
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Be Bold, Britain, And Withdraw Troops
by Jim Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, June 24, 2001 BELFAST, Northern Ireland - Here's a radical thought:
Britain should announce a 75 percent reduction in
troops and bases in Northern Ireland, thereby breathing
new life into the flagging Good Friday agreement.
That would cut Britain's current 65 military installations
and 13,600 troops to 16 bases and 3,400 troops -
ample for the Connecticut-sized North.
Exact percentages are debatable, but the point is:
Britain, with the most powerful army on the island,
could instantly transform the dynamics of the peace
process by making a gesture unparalleled in the history
of Anglo-Irish relations.
Of course, this probably won't happen. Governments
don't do things like that. More importantly, Britain,
which couldn't stop the Irish Republican Army during
three decades of conflict, now has them behind the
eight ball - the world and its mother will blame
the guerrillas if the accord sinks because they won't
meet David Trimble's July 1 disarmament deadline.
It's easy to forget the IRA
has held a cease-fire for four years, and for all
but 17 months since August
1994. Dwarfing that is the fact that Sinn Fein sits
in a British-ruled Parliament, having accepted the "principle
of consent" - that the North will be British-ruled
until a majority of its citizens vote otherwise.
Another often-overlooked reality is that the two
largest pro-British loyalist paramilitary groups
- the Ulster Defense Association/Ulster Freedom Fighters
and the Ulster Volunteer Force - have repeatedly
said they're not ready to disarm.
Loyalist pipe bomb attacks against nationalists
are running a few a week. Catholic mailmen were recently
withdrawn from a south Belfast loyalist area after
being told they'd be shot. And, 12 days ago, police
found 400 pounds of explosives that had been stockpiled
by the UVF in a Belfast apartment.
In 1998's peace accord, participants
affirmed their commitments to the "total disarmament of all paramilitary
organizations" and pledged to use "any influence
they may have" to achieve it by May 22, 2000, "in
the context of the implementation of the overall
settlement."
For the IRA, the last phrase is the key. They argue
Britain has not moved far enough on reforming policing,
and that British army demilitarization has been conducted
at a snail's pace.
In that accord, Britain pledged
to return "as early
as possible to normal security arrangements . . .
consistent with the level of threat." The threat
is now the dissident "Real IRA."
In February, a Belfast newspaper's front-page scoop
claimed the IRA stronghold of south Armagh would
see huge defections to the RIRA on the 20th anniversary
of the start of IRA hunger striker Bobby Sand's fast
on March 1. It didn't happen. Nor did it happen on
the May 5 anniversary of his death.
Why? Because the RIRA's strength and potential is
vastly exaggerated. This is not to underestimate
its potential to kill or to carry out periodic bombings.
But common sense indicates that if the RIRA were
as strong in south Armagh as some reports indicate,
the area would be ablaze. But the RIRA has carried
out only a half-dozen attacks there in the last three
years.
The truth is, the area's IRA activists - some of
the guerrillas' most hardened operatives - overwhelmingly
back Adams. And if Britain dramatically demilitarized,
the RIRA's main recruiting issue would virtually
vanish.
If the biggest player in the
peace process, Britain, led the way by making a
monumental gesture, unionists
might jump up and down. But it would be virtually
impossible for the IRA not to reciprocate. Besides,
Britain could calm unionists by reminding them republicans
have accepted "consent."
And, in the unlikely event that the IRA returns
to war, Britain can easily bring troops back. They'll
be less than an hour's flight away.
The entire peace process has involved risk-taking.
And as the peace accord showed, those risks can result
in historic breakthroughs of a kind once thought
to be impossible.
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Threat Of Violence May Topple Good Friday Accord
by
Jim Dee
Boston Sunday Herald, February 20, 2000
BELFAST, Northern Ireland - It seems like a pretty
straightforward proposition: If the Irish Republican
Army disarms, Northern Ireland gets self government.
Trouble is, it's not in the Good Friday Agreement.
A dense, 30-page document, the agreement was carefully
crafted in the hope of ending decades of bloody strife
in the British-ruled North, born of centuries of hostility
between England and Ireland.
Passed in 1998 referenda by a 94 percent margin in
the South, and 71 percent in the North, it addressed
issues from constitutional, police and judicial reforms,
to a broad range of economic, cultural and social concerns.
It also dealt with political violence.
On Page One, Paragraph Four, peace-talks
participants reiterated their commitment to "exclusively democratic
and peaceful means" in resolving political disputes.
They also expressed explicit opposition
to "any use
or threat of force by others for political purpose."
Clearly, future violence by the IRA, loyalist paramilitaries
or, as Irish republicans understand it, the British
Army and the Royal Ulster Constabulary, violates the
peace accord.
On Page 20, opposite a section dealing with British
Army demilitarization, there is a section on paramilitary
weapons decommissioning.
In it, participants reaffirmed
their commitment to the "total disarmament of all paramilitary organizations," pledging
to use "any influence they may have" to achieve it
by May 22.
The problem is that anyone can "use any influence
they may have" to achieve something, and simply fail.
That is exactly what has happened - and the reasons
are plain.
Firstly, at this stage, the IRA and pro-British loyalist
paramilitaries still don't fully trust each other,
and aren't yet convinced the new political institutions
will function without favoring either unionists or
nationalists.
Secondly, as the Independent International
Commission on (Weapons) Decommissioning has stated
- as have the
British and Irish governments - "decommissioning is
a voluntary act."
Sinn Fein argues that the only
way to persuading the IRA to disarm is by proving
that politics work. But
because of an 18-month Ulster Unionist boycott of Cabinet
creation, politics has been "working" only in the North
for two of the last 20 months - and now the Cabinet
has been suspended by the British government.
Unionists are right in asserting that a democratically
elected government cannot sustain itself while parties
in the government maintain private, illegal, armies.
But the Good Friday Agreement is a template for resolving
the conflict - not a guaranteed final settlement in
itself.
And as such, like it or not, with neither the IRA
nor loyalist paramilitaries ready to disband, parties
linked to them will have to help shape the North's
political future while in contact with, and occasionally
consulting with, paramilitary groups.
And remember, the Good Friday Agreement wasn't slapped
together in an afternoon over a few beers. It was painstakingly
sculpted during 22 months of tense horse- trading,
preceded by three years of negotiations to define the
scope of eventual peace talks.
It is a contract between bitter adversaries, arrived
at despite the fact that unionists refused to speak
directly to Sinn Fein throughout the negotiating process.
In accepting the accord, Irish republicans not only
conceded for the first time since Britain's 1920 partitioning
of Ireland - that Northern Ireland has a right to exist,
but agreed to help govern itfor the foreseeable future.
The importance of this monumental shift, which triggered
great anger in many republican areas, cannot be underestimated.
Sinn Fein and the IRA were tacitly admitting that
the IRA would never drive Britain from Ireland, and
that the war had become, in effect, futile.
As unionists sat with Sinn Fein negotiators through
peace talks, Sinn Fein members in the new assembly,
and later Sinn Fein Cabinet ministers in government,
they had ample evidence that the republican movement
saw its future in politics not war.
All of which makes unionist moves to collapse the
Cabinet over IRA disarmament - at a time when the IRA's
30-month-old cease-fire was rock-solid - seem a very
risky prospect indeed.
As the focus shifts to the United States this week,
with David Trimble and Martin McGuinness making their
cases to Irish-America, the media and the White House,
the worth of the unionist gamble may start to emerge.
UUP leader David Trimble characterizes
the current crisis as "a bit of difficulty at the
moment."
But as Easter approaches, it's worth remembering the
words of the reputed leader of the IRA, Brian Keenan,
about unionist decommissioning demands, at a commemoration
last year of the 1916 Easter Rebellion.
"I don't know where they get this word from `decommissioning,'
because it strikes me that what they mean is `surrender.'
Well, there will be no surrender," he said.
"They either honor the Good Friday
Agreement, or the Good Friday Agreement falls."
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